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Mortgage Rates on FIRE! Home Prices Up in Smoke?

 

Mortgage interest rates have already risen by over a quarter of a percentage point in 2018. Many are projecting that rates could increase to 5% by the end of the year.

What impact will rising rates have on house values?

Many quickly jump to the conclusion that an increase in mortgage rates will have a detrimental impact on real estate prices as fewer buyers will be able to qualify for a loan. This seems logical; if there is less demand for housing then prices will drop.

However, in a good economy, rising mortgage rates increase demand as many prospective purchasers immediately jump off the fence to guarantee they get the lower rate.

Let’s look at home prices the last four times mortgage rates increased dramatically.

In each case, home prices APPRECIATED and did not depreciate. No one is projecting as dramatic an increase in rates as the examples above. Most are projecting an increase of approximately 1% by the end of the year.

The last time mortgage rates increased by 1% over a twelve-month period was January 2013 (3.41%) to January 2014 (4.43%). What happened to house prices during that span? They appreciated by 9.8%.

Just two weeks ago, Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consultingexplained:

“Mortgage rates have risen 1% or more ten times in the last 43 years, with little impact on home sales and prices when the economy was also strong…Historically, rising confidence, solid job growth, and higher wages have more than offset reduced demand for housing resulting from higher mortgage rates.”

Bottom Line

When mortgage rates increase, history has shown that prices appreciate (and do not depreciate) during that same time span.

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Hugh Williams

Hugh is a life long resident of the State of Florida, and is pleased to reside in the beautiful seaside community of Amelia Island. A graduate of University of Florida with High Honors and a major in Business, Hugh also went on to attend the Dick Grove School of Music and the Guitar Institute of Technology in Los Angeles. With his long-time friend and business partner, Dee Chaplin, he is proud that they have achieved the reputation and status of owning and operating a top producing Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices real estate franchise on beautiful Amelia Island. Together they have supported the community by raising thousands of dollars for local charities and by founding the Amelia Island Beach Walk. Hugh's personal interests include playing guitar, home recording, fishing, golfing and real estate investing. For a highly qualified Professional Realtor, look to Hugh Williams. His background in business and knowledge of the local market makes him the Realtor of Choice on Amelia Island, Florida.

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